November 03, 2004

Spin The Vote! 2004
New Hampshire Edition

---Lynch over Benson, Damn---

Lynch beat Benson. I wanted Benson to win, I really liked him despite the scandals around him. Lynch is a Democrat, but at least he has pledged to veto a sales tax or an income tax. Hopefully he'll show similar restraint against other nex taxes or plain ol' tax hikes. His plans will probably necessitate a spending cut or a tax hike. I hope he picks spending cut.

Everybody, there's a new guy in the corner office. We'll see what he does, because maybe he's got some good ideas and really means his anti-tax pledges. He comes from a business background, let's hope he understands how stupid the government can be and how obstructive taxes are. I don't know that I'd bet money he'll run a great libertarian administration, but let's hope he holds his anti-tax pledge. If he breaks it, I'll cover it here as soon as I can - and see if the legislature follows him.

---Republican Congress, Ho Hum---

Yada yada, all four Congressmen for New Hampshire are Republicans. No surprise, new Hampshirites like conservative-, independent- and libertarian-leaners in general, and hate taxes, stupid government and gun control. That's more traditionally compatible with the GOP.

The elections were overwhelming, truly landslides by most definitions. Bradley in CD1: 63-37. Good ol' Charlie Bass in CD2: 59-38-3. Judd Gregg in the Senate: 66-34. Libertarian Kahn challenged Bass and got that 3% (with unrequested, unrequited Democratic assistance).

This is why I find it especially hilarious when I meet someone who hates the Free State Project but has a Nadeau (CD1) sticker or a Hodes (CD2) button. They sometimes claim to speak for the majority or the entirety of New Hampshire, but then their political choices are overwhelmingly out of step with the congressional winners of the Granite State. Maybe Democrats are using it as a tactic to feel more like they belong in a state that they disagree with so strongly.

A lot of them are REALLY into the DUMP GREGG and anti-GOP campaigns, too. Seems like they're more different from Granite Staters than the FSP crowd, many of whom would very plausibly vote Republican in Congressional races.

---Bigger Dem Minorities In State Senate, Executive Council---

The Democrats thought they could make gains in the State Senate, moving it from 18-6 (a 3 to 1 margin, notice) to a GOP lead of 14-10. As of right now, several races are close and undecided. Clearly, though, the Democrats will gain 2 or 3 seats, leaving the Republicans in charge. Nothing too big here, though obviously a little troublesome regarding a new tax.

On the Executive Council, Pignatelli, a Democrat from the State Senate, unseated incumbent Republican Wheeler in district five. Republican Wieczorek held his seat in district four. District 2 is close, but Spaulding will likely hold his spot for the GOP. The Executive Council was previously held by five Republicans, but now it's 4 to 1. Two seats were not up for election, districts 1 and 3.

---Court Amendment [Passes]---

[Edit: this was mis-reported. Thanks a lot, AP. Assholes. It passed, hooray.]

According to AP, it failed. The constitutional amendment granting administrative power over the Supreme Court of New Hampshire to both the legislature and the SCNH. This includes rules of evidence. In cases where they conflict, the legislature's version is supreme. The Court Justices e-mailed their employees about opposing this and got into trouble for it. Although the ban on justice's campaigning doesn't apply to issues of improving the administration of the law, they're never allowed to solicit their employees or people under them. The amendment was supposed to increase accountability of the Court and balance powers. I think it's a good idea, since the rules of evidence involves the difference between a conviction or acquittal. This amendment failed last time it came up, in 2002.

---The Trend?---

The Granite State loves to confuse you. They rejected the Democrats for Congress by wide margins, approaching 2 to 1. They increased the number of Democrats in the State Senate and even added a token Democrat to the Executive Council. In any other state, you'd guess that they hate national Democrats but their local Democrats fit the state's politics. Nope.

They voted, albeit by a thin, 10k vote margin, for Kerry. Is that simply a quirk, or a reflection of Kerry's new England roots? No, Kerry is a Masshole, and he did get a primary victory in New Hampshire, but the state was close to going for Gore in 2000 and went for Clinton in 1996 - while maintaining similar trends for the other races.

The fact is, new Hampshire is not overly ideological. All things being equal, most of New Hampshire prefers Republicans. All things are not equal, though, and New Hampshirites will go based on personality or specific issues to get what they want or approve of what they like from candidates in question. At once, they can be predicted (Republicans will hold a dominant place in state politics) without being restricted. That's why it's such a great state, Yankee independence and unabashed anti-tax sympathies are the major trends.


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