July 25, 2004

Badnarik at 3% in Poll

From the Badnarik blog:

"[Polling results:] 43% of respondents chose Bush, 46% chose Kerry, and 3% chose Badnarik - with 8% not sure. This poll of 1000 adults was conducted on July 21 by Rasmussen Research, providing a 3% margin of error.

"Some other data presented show that 68% of those polled support open presidential debates.

"When asked if people would vote for Badnarik if they know that Bush and Kerry supported the War in Iraq and the Drug War, and that Badnarik opposes them, Badnarik received a 34% positive rate, compared to 55% who would not vote for him and 11% undecided. Gordon noted, 'In a three way race, 34% is all it may take to win.'

"Another question revealed that millions of public tax dollars are spent to stage the Democrat and Republican national presidential nominating conventions.

"When asked if tax money should be spent to stage these conventions, 24% said "Yes," 62% said "No" with 14% being unsure.

"The Libertarian Party supports its national convention with totally private funding."

States decided by under 3% of the vote in 2000:

Florida, 25 EVs, 0.01% margin
New Mexico, 5 EVs, 0.06% margin
Wisconsin, 11 EVs, 0.22% margin
Iowa, 7 EVs, 0.31% margin
Oregon, 7 EVs, 0.44% margin
New Hampshire, 4 EVs, 1.27% margin
Minnesota, 10 EVs, 2.40% margin

Plus, Missouri (11 EVs), Ohio (21 EVs), Nevada (4 EVs) and Tennessee (11 EVs) were all between 3.34 and 3.86 percent margins.

Sixty-nine electoral votes were decided within 3 percentage points in 2000, and an additional forty-seven were between 3- and 4-point gaps.

That's a pretty big hunk of the election, very likely the entire ball game. If Florida, Nevada, New Hampshire and Ohio were all flipped to Kerry by Badnarik it would be an astounding victory, and proof that the spoiler really is important. Of course, it's more likely to just be Florida and New Hampshire, but even that is over 30 electoral votes (especially with the rescaled EVs, wherein FL gained).

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